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Thursday, May 13, 2010

Size of Oil Spill in Gulf Underestimated, Scientists Say

Two weeks ago, the government put out a round estimate of the size of the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico: 5,000 barrels a day. Repeated endlessly in news reports, it has become conventional wisdom.
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But scientists and environmental groups are raising sharp questions about that estimate, declaring that the leak must be far larger. They also criticize BP for refusing to use well-known scientific techniques that would give a more precise figure.
The criticism escalated on Thursday, a day after the release of a video that showed a huge black plume of oil gushing from the broken well at a seemingly high rate. BP has repeatedly claimed that measuring the plume would be impossible.
The figure of 5,000 barrels a day was hastily produced by government scientists in Seattle. It appears to have been calculated using a method that is specifically not recommended for major oil spills.
Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University who is an expert in the analysis of oil slicks, said he had made his own rough calculations using satellite imagery. They suggested that the leak could “easily be four or five times” the government estimate, he said.
“The government has a responsibility to get good numbers,” Dr. MacDonald said. “If it’s beyond their technical capability, the whole world is ready to help them.”
Scientists said that the size of the spill was directly related to the amount of damage it would do in the ocean and onshore, and that calculating it accurately was important for that reason.
BP has repeatedly said that its highest priority is stopping the leak, not measuring it. “There’s just no way to measure it,” Kent Wells, a BP senior vice president, said in a recent briefing.
Yet for decades, specialists have used a technique that is almost tailor-made for the problem. With undersea gear that resembles the ultrasound machines in medical offices, they measure the flow rate from hot-water vents on the ocean floor. Scientists said that such equipment could be tuned to allow for accurate measurement of oil and gas flowing from the well.
Richard Camilli and Andy Bowen, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, who have routinely made such measurements, spoke extensively to BP last week, Mr. Bowen said. They were poised to fly to the gulf to conduct volume measurements.
But they were contacted late in the week and told not to come, at around the time BP decided to lower a large metal container to try to capture the leak. That maneuver failed. They have not been invited again.
“The government and BP are calling the shots, so I will have to respect their judgment,” Dr. Camilli said.
BP did not respond Thursday to a question about why Dr. Camilli and Mr. Bowen were told to stand down. Speaking more broadly about the company’s policy on measuring the leak, a spokesman, David H. Nicholas, said in an e-mail message that “the estimated rate of flow would not affect either the direction or scale of our response, which is the largest in history.”
Dr. MacDonald and other scientists said the government agency that monitors the oceans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, had been slow to mount the research effort needed to analyze the leak and assess its effects. Sylvia Earle, a former chief scientist at NOAA and perhaps the country’s best-known oceanographer, said that she, too, was concerned by the pace of the scientific response.
But Jane Lubchenco, the NOAA administrator, said in an interview on Thursday: “Our response has been instantaneous and sustained. We would like to have more assets. We would like to be doing more. We are throwing everything at it that we physically can.”
The issue of how fast the well is leaking has been murky from the beginning. For several days after the April 21 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig, the government and BP claimed that the well on the ocean floor was leaking about 1,000 barrels a day.
A small organization called SkyTruth, which uses satellite images to monitor environmental problems, published an estimate on April 27 suggesting that the flow rate had to be at least 5,000 barrels a day, and probably several times that.
The following day, the government — over public objections from BP — raised its estimate to 5,000 barrels a day. A barrel is 42 gallons, so the estimate works out to 210,000 gallons per day.
BP later acknowledged to Congress that the worst case, if the leak accelerated, would be 60,000 barrels a day, a flow rate that would dump a plume the size of the Exxon Valdez spill into the gulf every four days. BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, has estimated that the reservoir tapped by the out-of-control well holds at least 50 million barrels of oil.
The 5,000-barrel-a-day estimate was produced in Seattle by a NOAA unit that responds to oil spills. It was calculated with a protocol known as the Bonn convention that calls for measuring the extent of an oil spill, using its color to judge the thickness of oil atop the water, and then multiplying.
However, Alun Lewis, a British oil-spill consultant who is an authority on the Bonn convention, said the method was specifically not recommended for analyzing large spills like the one in the Gulf of Mexico, since the thickness was too difficult to judge in such a case.
Even when used for smaller spills, he said, correct application of the technique would never produce a single point estimate, like the government’s figure of 5,000 barrels a day, but rather a range that would likely be quite wide.
NOAA declined to supply detailed information on the mathematics behind the estimate, nor would it address the points raised by Mr. Lewis.
Mr. Lewis cited a video of the gushing oil pipe that was released on Wednesday. He noted that the government’s estimate would equate to a flow rate of about 146 gallons a minute. (A garden hose flows at about 10 gallons per minute.)
“Just anybody looking at that video would probably come to the conclusion that there’s more,” Mr. Lewis said.The government has made no attempt to update its estimate since releasing it on April 28.
“I think the estimate at the time was, and remains, a reasonable estimate,” said Dr. Lubchenco, the NOAA administrator. “Having greater precision about the flow rate would not really help in any way. We would be doing the same things.”
Environmental groups contend, however, that the flow rate is a vital question. Since this accident has shattered the illusion that deep-sea oil drilling is immune to spills, they said, this one is likely to become the touchstone in planning a future response.
“If we are systematically underestimating the rate that’s being spilled, and we design a response capability based on that underestimate, then the next time we have an event of this magnitude, we are doomed to fail again,” said John Amos, the president of SkyTruth. “So it’s really important to get this number right.” creature
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New Royals skipper let go by Brewers during 2008 playoff run

Ned Yost is getting a second managerial chance. The record indicates that he is clearly deserving of this opportunity.
Yost is taking over as manager of the Kansas City Royals from Trey Hillman, who was dismissed Thursday.
Hillman had two-plus seasons with the Royals. He was hired largely on the basis of his success managing in Japan. He was advertised as a charismatic figure who could galvanize the Royals roster and inspire this club to greater success. But he was generally up against at least three clubs in the American League Central with significantly better talent than his own. No major miracles were accomplished on Hillman's watch, and although he alone cannot be blamed for that, a regression in record last season and a 12-23 start this season meant that it was someone else's turn.
That turns out to be Yost, who had been brought into the Royals administration as a special advisor to baseball operations. Both Yost and Royals general manager Dayton Moore were with the Atlanta franchise during the glory years of the Braves. They both saw firsthand how success is achieved. They do not have to guess at how success is achieved.Yost is an interesting choice, to say the least. The majority of his tenure as Milwaukee manager -- two weeks short of six seasons -- has to be judged as successful. He took a club that was basically in baseball oblivion and changed the culture. Accountability improved. The work ethic improved. And gradually, the Brewers' record improved, too, to the point where the club became a postseason contender in 2007 and 2008.
Yost was widely praised in baseball circles for his work in Milwaukee, but his term there ended in an unusual, if not bizarre fashion. The Brewers had come into September 2008 with a five-game lead in the National League Wild Card race, but then had gone 3-11.
The Brewers let Yost go, replacing him with third-base coach Dale Sveum. The Brewers reached the postseason for the first time in 26 years, but Sveum was not brought back as manager. Ken Macha got the job, although Sveum is still with the Brewers as hitting coach.
The dismissal of Yost, in the midst of a race for the postseason, was shocking, but Yost conducted himself with dignity."I'm going to do this right," Yost told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel about his dismissal. "I have nothing to be ashamed about. I'm walking out with my head held high."
Criticisms of Yost at the time included the fact that he stayed with players who struggled mightily. It could be argued that his faith in second baseman Rickie Weeks may have cost him his job. He also refused to publicly criticize players who were struggling. This may have been frustrating to media and fans, but it is a managerial trait that Yost learned from none other than Bobby Cox, and it certainly has worked for Cox.
There was also speculation that Yost's normal intensity, the same quality that led him to succeed in the first place, appeared to the players, in the heat of a race for the postseason, as basically an excess of tension. Whether or not this was the case, Yost could not be accused of being wired too loosely.
One thing that could be observed was that as years went on, even while Yost built up a reservoir of success and respect, he seemed to become more defensive when faced with questions that he viewed as potentially troublesome. He should be bigger than that at his second managerial stop.
Having said all that, his dismissal in Milwaukee still was unfair. Yost demonstrated an ability to take a very bad situation and turn it into a functional situation. He could clearly take a club from Point A to Point B. He was not allowed to see if he could get the same club from Point B to Point C.
The Kansas City situation will be no walk in the park, either. The Royals, as we speak, are 11th in the American League in runs scored and dead last in team earned run average. Given those numbers, fifth place in the AL Central does not seem like an illogical position.
Based on Ned Yost's work in Milwaukee, the Royals will improve their level of play with him as manager. This will not transform them into the Minnesota Twins, but there is every indication that with Yost at the helm, this will become a more competitive club.
Hillman was sort of a New Wave choice as manager. Ned Yost is old-school, nuts-and-bolts. With just one winning season since 1994, the Royals probably need to regroup. They are headed back toward the basics with Yost. Achievements
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

I Love you but I Hate you


It is the true test of how human we really are. How much we can accept in our fellow humans. And really how much we want to accept. If we accept too much does that make us strong. And if we don't accept enough does that make us weak. Or is it the other way around?
All these things are a true test of how much you are capable of loving.
We all are born into this world with one thought - I shall love and be loved.
I am not afraid of love I am afraid of what too much love for the wrong reasons can do. It can make you into a person that you don't know you have become until it is all-wrong.
Until the day you look in the mirror and the reflection is not yours.
We marry our true love and then as time goes by we tend to lose whom we once were. And if we can't find ourselves during this time of marriage then we become a shell that will eventually crack. And your marriage will soon become a divorce statistic.
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Sunday, March 14, 2010

Clustering Algorithm for Tactical Self-organized Network


Ad Hoc network is a collection of wireless mobile nodes dynamically forming a temporary network without use of any existing network infrastructure or centralized administration;and the mobile nodes in the Ad Hoc network communicate with each other using multi-hops wireless links.As a new wireless communication technology,it is because it has such characters as without using any infrastructure,being able to be set rapidly up and powerful ant-destructibility,that the digital war field always firstly selects it as its communication network.With-out question,Ad Hoc network has very important application network.At present,many countries have widely used Ad Hoc technology in military communication.But PLA doesn't use this new technology because the research in our country is still at a beginning level and there exists some questions that are not solved.The main conclusions are as follow in the paper:First of all,the paper firstly introduces the basic concepts,the main characteristics, application fields and the network structure of the Ad Hoc network;analyze the characteristics,functions and main factors influencing its properties of the tactical Ad Hoc network;and analyze and research the function demand for the Ad Hoc network construction under the tactics background.On the base of the current command relationship and the flow way of information,the architecture for three-level self-organizing network is proposed.The architecture has features of simple structure,high reliability and good applicability.Secondly,on the base of analyzing and comparing of Several Typical Clustering Algorithms,detailed analyzing specifically of AOW(Automatic On-demand Weighted algorithm),and improving of weights of AOW,the Paper brings forward CCA(Command-based Clustering Algorithms).This algorithm uses the tree structure knowledge.It provides a platform for the army using Ad Hoc to command.Final,using the well-known network simulation software OPNET,the paper analyzes and compares the performance of several typical clustering algorithms.As the result shows, CCA can be used well in the tactical Ad Hoc network.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Time and Time


Sometimes it is hard,
Sometimes it is not,
To be a human being,
Or to wish for a certain thing.

When I wanted to do more,
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When I wanted to do less,
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As an important aspect of sustainable development, Circular Economy has moved from a concept into an important model of making Environment,economy and social harmonious development, many countries are actively engaged in the practice of Circular Economy,so it is very important to evaluate performance of the practice, it is not only to quantify the effect of Circular Economy practice, Where can you find this chi straightener?but also it's the need of consummating Circular Economy theories, Xi'an has do a series of efforts to promote Circular Economy practice,it can provide decision-making by evaluating degree of Circular Economy in Xi'an.This paper chooses the suitable weight assignment and comprehensive methods of Circular Economy based on economic and social theory, I think these ralph lauren polo shirts are the beginning of a beautiful friendship.by comparing advantages and disadvantages of weight assignment and comprehensive methods.It refers to many home and abord scholars' research results concerning regional comprehensive evaluation index system of Circular Economy,it also refers to the evaluation ind...ex system of circular economy (macro) issued by the National Development and Reform Commission.It preliminary designs a comprehensive evaluation index system of Circular Economy, including one goal layer five control layers and twenty six indexes,and it checks the relevance of the twenty six indexes using Xi'an statistic data from 2002 to 2007, merges indexes which are high identical indexes to avoiding duplicated calculating.It uses AHP to assign weight of control layer and uses Entropy Method to assign weight of indexes,uses linear weighted technique to calculate Rate of Circular Economy for Xi'an,and then calculates Rate of Circular Economy for Shaanxi Province,the results shows that Xi'an' rate is higher than Shaanxi'.You had cheap ralph lauren polo shirts at″I like it!″At last,it calculates obstacles degrees of control layers and indexes finding what blocks development of Circular Economy of Xi'an, Low resource efficiency is the main reason,and then analysises five control layers,gives corresponding policy recommendations for questions.
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Fire Accidents in Big Cities


In recent years there has been a marked growth of fire accidents in big cities of our country. How much do these cheap straighteners cost?Almost every day we see fire engines rushing through the streets. Fires have not only resulted in heavy economic losses but also injured and killed many people.What are the causes of fire accidents?You can pay for Lacoste Polo Shirts by credit card here. Most of the fires are brought about by carelessness and violation of fire safety regulations. Others are due to the poor quality of home electrical appliances. By the way, some people don’t know how to use them properly.Are there polo shirts you would like? Besides,there are quite a few businesses which focus so much of their attention on profits that they tend to neglect and even ignore fire precautions.
  In my opinion, in order to prevent fires we should first of all foster people’s sense of fire prevention. The second thing we have to do is to increase the number of professional fire fighters, to whom regular training courses should be offered. Finally, we are to improve the existing fire engines and add more fire facilities to high-rise buildings. In this way, a reliable fire prevention system will be formed.
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Cockroaches

Cockroaches are the insects that frighten me the most. I wasn't afraid of them before, but now I can't stand them. It started when I was sleeping one day and smelled a disgusting odor. Cheap Lacoste Polo Shirts are popular everywhere. I discovered a dead cockroach under my body and its eggs on my pillow! I almost died! I jumped off my bed at once and took a bath quickly.I feel the need-the need for cheap Wholesale nike shoes! The experience made me hate cockroaches. What I find most disgusting is when I see a cockroach fly around the room. I'm always afraid that they m1ght land on me. Hearing the sound of its wings makes me nervous and afraid. Cheap Nike shoes are very nice here! Cockroaches pose a threat to our daily lives. A dirty environment will attract many cockroaches and this may threaten our health. They pollute food and water and bring many illnesses, such as dysentery and skin diseases. I can't help shivering at the sight of them.
I wanna be the place you call home
What makes the desirt beautiful
First need your hand and forever can begin
I am slow walker but I never walk backward
love and be loved in return

a accounting firm

1.Main responsibilties:Perfect internal audit systems and programmes and innovate audit methodsInstitute annual audit plans and perspective plansIdentify the obiligations of every position of audit departmentMake annual and semi-year performance audits of the subsidiesAudit and investigate the material fraud phenomenons and actions Where can you find this chi straightener?2.Main performances:Perfect performance audit modelInstitute leaving posts and tour of duty audit modelInstitute purchasing and selling and inventory management models and audit the risk management according to COSO report and chinese internal control foundamental regulations Succeed in revealing the private cashbox made by a director of business unitIn charger of organizing and dunning the accounts receivables of the group.Do you need cheap ralph lauren polo shirts?

1. Main responsibilities:Assess performences of the staffAssignment of audit Direct large audit casesProvide forensic assurance Oh,Jerry,don't let's ask for the moon.We have the ralph lauren polo shirts. 2.Main performences:Direct auditing shandong constructions and installments company limitedDirect auditing the performences of jinan installments companyAnnual financial statements audit of a large mineral group company limited
And forever has no end
Life is a pure flame
Stray birds of summer come to my window
vagrant of the world
myhomework

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Fever of Foreign Language Training Schools

Today it is very common for you to get some north face jackets or booklets about foreign language training. We have witnessed an alarming increase of various training schools or organizations in the name of government affiliation or Sino-foreign cooperation and so on. Especially at this critical period of entry into the WTO (world trade organization), enthusiasm of learning foreign cheap north face jackets, especially English begin to spread at a tremendous speed. People try to seek the chances of improving their qualifications. As a consequence, the training schools spring up. Whereas we can’t help wondering about the service provided by the training schools, i.e., the quality of training under the bustling appearance of the training market. There, indeed, exists some problems.
First of all, most of the training schools don’t have their own regular teachers. Most people working there regard the job as a part-time one. A case which is especially prevalent for some teachers in the colleges or universities. This means that these teachers may leave the training schools for various reasons. For example, finding another school which can provide higher salary. Result of this situation is the change of teachers or recruitment of new teachers. Anyway, this would influences the normal teaching. Also there is a common impression in the teachers’ minds that these northface jackets are not a place where they can work for a long time. So even if some training schools may have regular teachers, these teachers are just waiting for better opportunities except that they just want to idle away the time and have no other aspirations.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Youth


Youth is not a time of life; it is a state of mind; it is not a matter of rosy cheeks, red lips and supple knees; it is a matter of the will, a quality of the imagination, a vigor of the emotions; it is the freshness of the deep springs of life.

Youth means a temperamental predominance of courage over timidity, of the appetite for adventure over the love of ease. This often exists in a man of 60 more than a boy of 20. Nobody grows old merely by a number of years. We grow old by deserting our ideals.

Years may wrinkle the skin, but to give up enthusiasm wrinkles the soul. Worry, fear, self-distrust bows the heart and turns the spring back to dust.

Whether 60 or 16, there is in every human being´s heart the lure of wonder, the unfailing childlike appetite of what´s next and the joy of the game of living. In the center of your heart and my heart there is a wireless station: so long as it receives messages of beauty, hope, cheer, courage and power from men and from the Infinite, so long are you young.

When the aerials are down, and your spirit is covered with snows of cynicism and the ice of pessimism, then you are grown old, even at 20, but as long as your aerials are up, to catch waves of optimism, there is hope you may die young at 80.

Lonely night, lonely me

Today, a friend's birthday, in the chicken pot shop to eat dinner, and later went to KTV, in that Youhou and dance incredibly happy to tune into the music DJ's, opening of flashing lights, then Yi Sha, I feel like was in a dream, his mind is not clear, Tiaoatiaoa ~ and even stood on the table,真爽ah, ha ha! Later on, I do not know how cry, and lie on the sofa, although see above, there is soot, or ignored, and a bit got a little older to me, and even be able to lie in such a dirty place! Now that I think all good disgusting! Thought of two people, two of letting me open up my heart wound people! Issued a message to them, one made a fool ... ... I said he had one was a bad man, and now you are mixing together with a ... ... ... ... They are all given me back the information, one said it is not I, ha ha, a sister ... that was his sister ... ... ... he saw the message urgent, and I asked him where? Does not even tell me, but also let me wait for his call? What is this thing ah. I have always prudent today, how it? His sister, I would faint! Also trouble in ... ... This is how ending the next? If his sister know who I am, but also not know how to think? ... ... I am crazy, it seems really can not drink alcohol ... ... ... ... how can I do? Do? Whether or not care! Hey! Now a family can not come back, in the cafes and experience the living! Lonely lonely night to accompany me ... ...

Journey


  When will collapses to ground,
  Life won’t stand on its end.
  How can a shaky figure stand
  In autumn cool and dusk wind?



  When a man is lowering his head,
  He’s going to elevate his mind.
  If you have unyielding soul,and
  On solid ground will you stand.

Always On My Mind


I silently gaze into her gleaming eyes,
only I can see her many hidden lies,
I never said a word,
because my thoughts didn't need to be heard,

She acts like she doesn't know,
but when we're alone it begins to show,
all of those lies begin to fade away,
but it didn't help at all my dismay,

I can't get over this feeling,
I don't know what to do,
my heart feels like it's peeling,
to show her what's true,

I will be there for you,
no matter what we go through,
you are always on my mind,
and I don't know what I'll find,

if only I'd asked her,
a little earlier,
but it is too late now,
and I wish that I knew how, but,

I will be there for you,
no matter what we go through,
you are always on my mind,
and I don't know what I'll find,

I'm walking through a desert storm just trying to get to you,
Oh darling, you have broke my heart in two,
Oh, yes I know it was you,
no denying that it was you,

You painted my world all different colors,
splashed them around with daisies and flowers,
Then tore it all down without a sound,
leaving my world all drowned, but,

I will be there for you,
no matter what we go through,
you are always on my mind,
and I don't know what I'll find

poem

After bidding adieu to Baidi City clad in the colored mist at dawn,
I traveled three hundred miles to Jiangling within one day's time.
Ceaseless is the calling of monkeys on both banks,
And swift is my boat having left ten thousand mountains behind